11.1.22: Audio automatically transcribed by Sonix

11.1.22: this mp3 audio file was automatically transcribed by Sonix with the best speech-to-text algorithms. This transcript may contain errors.

Producer:
Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is not intended to predict the performance of any specific investment and is not a solicitation or recommendation of any investment strategy.

Producer:
This is Another Money Show. Get set for another hour of the latest financial information and economic news affecting your bottom line. J.R. and Anthony are committed to helping more Americans like you optimize their income, reduce their tax risk, and reach financial freedom. So let's start the show. Here are your hosts, Anthony Carrao and J.R. Rotchford.

Anthony Carrao:
Good afternoon. I'm Anthony Carrao. That's J.R. Rotchford. We are financial advisors with Rotchford and Associates, a fully independent fourth-generation family practice of financial advisors located right here in the greater Phoenix area, and also your hosts of Another Money Show, Saturdays at noon right here on 960, The Patriot. We're aware that the last thing you need is another talk radio show, but we appreciate you being here. Hopefully, we're giving you some news and information that you're not getting on some of those other programs today. Got a good show. Hopefully, we think so. We're going to talk about Social Security. Should you take it at 62, if that's something you're considering? I'm very pro taking in 62, and I will explain why. We're going to give you some current news stories that may affect your finances. But first, we're going to start off with what we did not finish last week, and that's ranting about the banks because that is one of our very favorite things to do. So if you're an old, experienced listener and we've heard a bunch of our shows, you know, some of this might be a reiterated from what you've heard before. We know we've got a special fan out there, Arlene, who listens to us every week. So we'll give a quick shout-out to her. Appreciate you listening. But for those new people, let us tell you why we are worried about the banks.

J.R. Rotchford:
Well, let's go back to here. You said the last people the last thing people need is another talk show. Usually you say the last thing people need is Another Money Show. So I think that's the money talk show or we've really kind of found our groove. You know, we took on the show to have a platform. We took this show on to sound alarms. Anybody that stayed with us, even if you've only heard a couple of episodes, you know, this is not a sales platform. We're not just trying to get people in the office. Do we want people to sit with us? Of course. We're still in business. We still have a financial firm. But this is about a broader audience to hear what we think you need to hear. So we have really gotten into our groove. We are a current events show based on your finances, and I think that's what people do need. You know, they don't need Another Money Show. If you haven't heard about Roth conversions by now, if you haven't heard about timing, the market age based investing, you know that's surprising. What you really need to hear is stuff that we have to say. I mean, you know, we're watching we talk about the ten pillars. You know, one of the pillars that's that's really on my mind heavy is geopolitical forces. I hadn't planned on talk of this today, so I'll make it real quick and I'll get over to the banks. Look at the world right now. We we learned here recently that we have U.S. troops in Ukraine. That was one thing Russia said was a deal breaker. No U.S. troops hit the ground. Well, now they're saying we have them there. So are we inching toward World War Three? You know, that should be good for financial markets, right? I mean, that should be good for a lot of political influences.

Anthony Carrao:
Good defense sector, that's for sure.

J.R. Rotchford:
Oh, yeah. Yeah. So there's a lot of things that war is good for, but this is kind of a sketchy time in the world. You know, you talked about nuclear holocaust last week, actually, you talked about it too much. So I went out and bought a bunch of iodine and and I dug a big hole in my backyard. There's now a silo in my backyard. So thanks a lot, Anthony.

Anthony Carrao:
Beautiful. See, you're prepared. Are you scared now?

J.R. Rotchford:
No, not scared. Prepared.

Producer:
And the way if you missed that episode last week, you can subscribe to the podcast and get a catalog of episodes. Hi, guys. Good to see you again. Please continue. Continue on. Jim, the.

Anthony Carrao:
Producer, Jim, and he is a great spokesperson for us because we're terrible spokespeople for us.

J.R. Rotchford:
Well, and we're very fortunate. We have two producers. We still have the one and only Sam Davis, but we have Jim and Jim has stepped up. Jim's got such an amazing, amazing radio voice. I'm kind of scared of him because I think sooner or later we're going to be pinched out and it's going to be Jim's Another Money show. But is that.

Anthony Carrao:
Like Milli Vanilli kind of thing? Like we just pitch our ideas to Jim and then he can sing them for us? Yeah.

J.R. Rotchford:
That's a good idea. Jim makes an outline every week, which we haven't stuck to yet. One day we will. We need to make an outline and just have Jim do it because, yeah, we're we're not.

Anthony Carrao:
We ever going to talk about the banks? See, this is what we're going to talk about because we never end up talking about.

J.R. Rotchford:
What we said. Why do you talk about what we're gonna talk about? Just let this flow. I mean, this is this is good stuff. This is good radio, these shows that are scripted. And you hear the same thing every week and then they insert here the new portion is like, that's not what you're going to get here. You're going to get our feelings and opinions on any given day. So we're.

Anthony Carrao:
Going to be just as surprised as we are at what we're going to do this.

J.R. Rotchford:
Show. Amen. My you know what? It's not going to happen. So and to finish up on the geopolitical so boots on the ground in Ukraine, Russia's not happy about it. North Korea, by the way, today is November 2nd. It's a Wednesday. We record on Wednesday, we air on Saturday. So North Korea just shot off more rockets in the last 24 hours than they ever have in history, The history of North Korea. They have never tested, they say, testing so many rockets. South Korea, they push back by testing other things. It's very dangerous. Iran. Iran is really, really getting loud. So and all I'm getting at because all this stuff's pretty heavy. So really, what are you supposed to do? Are you supposed to go on Amazon or wherever you buy stuff and buy iodine? I don't know. I guess you can. Do you know how to use it? Do you know how to store it? You know what to do with it. I mean, I don't know. That's above my scope. But, you know, some of the simple stuff we have told you is really looking like it might have been a good idea. So, you know, pay down debt, save a little more than you spend by hard assets. We're going to talk later about Social Security planning.

J.R. Rotchford:
We're going to talk about insurance companies. We talk about that a lot because we're into safety. We're into protection first growth second, if you think about where to put your money, you have choices. You can have some cash at home. Not a bad idea, not a bad way to go for some of it. You can put money in the stock market, the bonds, you can do these different things. One of the main things when you think the risk is too heavy in the stock market, you look at banks. The problem with looking at banks, you know, and by the way, the banks are flying high again, some of these online banks, you know, we can get you 3% on your liquid money. So. Well, you know, the government is raising interest rates. Yeah, of course. Of course. And not real good times right now. If you have an adjustable rate mortgage, not a real good time if you are saddled with credit card debt. But if you're a saver, this is a wonderful time. You know, I just saw an ad for a credit union yesterday, 13 month CD three and a quarter percent. That's amazing. We haven't seen that in 15 years. So, you know, 13 months. I always love that. You know, it's not 12, it's 13 months amortized.

J.R. Rotchford:
It's, you know, 26 months. So come on, do 12 and 24 and that sort of thing. But anyway, so the rates are really good. Here's the deal. The banks are insolvent, the FDIC is insolvent. We point we point out to people, do your research. Don't just listen to us, especially me. I mean, you can listen to Anthony. You're fairly safe. Don't listen to me. Go on. Fdic, dot gov and and check something out. Look and see what your coverage is. Well, I'm covered for up to $250,000. Yes. Currently at 1.23%. That means if we had a modern day run on the banks, you know what could cause that stock market collapse? World War three, There's a few things that are heavy that could that could make people get a little nervous. So your FDIC coverage is almost none. It's like, I mean, a dollar and $0.23 for every $100 you have in the bank. What if you're talking big money, thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds? You know, it's scary. We've asked people to research the term bail in. There's a reason we've asked you to do that. They put the rules in place in this country to do a bail in. They've put the rules in place around the world. You know, right now Tunisia is in lockdown.

J.R. Rotchford:
There's a corrupt election in Brazil. The entire world has issues. And this country just day to day sails on. You know, it's like it's funny because I go out and I talk about all this stuff week after week. It's like, well, yeah, but you're wrong week after week. You know, you brought up the fact that people get a little bit like we were wrong, they were right, a little smug about the financial markets. You know, we don't need to dig into that again. But, you know, you've heard the term dead cat bounce. What if we're not done with the markets going down? What if we become smart again? This this volatility is scary. So, you know, it's back to the banks. If you haven't researched bail in, I kind of think you should kind of, you know, at least get a working knowledge of what it would mean, what would happen. It probably will frighten you if you look at the executive order 14067, especially section four, everything's lining up the way that it should line up to basically make the banks only an arm of the government and a vehicle to to store the digital currency. So whether that's coming quickly or not, I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball.

Anthony Carrao:
I am curious about how that's going to work because you go into a digital dollar, essentially. Everybody has Fed accounts. The Fed accounts through some of these bigger banks, you know, if they allow the banks to still be around. But what's that going to do to their stock if the Fed kind of takes over as the central bank, but your stocks and chase your stocks and Wells Fargo, I mean.

J.R. Rotchford:
Is there really a reason to have a stock market? Is there a reason to have one once we have digital currency? I mean, could we revamp the entire financial system in this country? I know it's overwhelming.

Anthony Carrao:
You know, that would change the stock market. I mean, that's that seems like a leap.

J.R. Rotchford:
It is a leap. I mean, it's a huge leap. I'm just I'm trying to think outside of the box. We're in the most uncharted territory we've ever been in. I mean, I don't know how it's going to work, you know, When's the last time anybody brought up 87,000 IRS agents? What is that? Is it a security force or is it really because we just need to audit the family businesses? And I mean, everything is so bizarre and we get stuck in something called normalcy bias where we want things to be normal. We can't handle it. It's unsettling to think about a stock market collapse, a bank balance and a digital currency being ushered in. It's not a pleasant thought. So but and let's get away from the banks right after the break, because, you know, we we have past episodes. We can point to people where we've really aired it out. But we do want you to know that you better be aware, be awake and be nimble with your liquid money. And I think if you think.

Anthony Carrao:
About the banks that I want to mention real quick, I do want to talk about the stock market over inflation because you brought that up. But first, I think we're going to let Jim take us away to commercial with his beautiful radio voice.

Producer:
Well, thank you, Ann. You can tease what you're coming up, what's coming up in the next segment? You guys were on fire in that first segment. We covered a lot. So what do we have coming up about the banks and what do you have coming up in segment two?

Anthony Carrao:
So I want to talk about the value of the stock market, how it's calculated versus the money we actually have, because, again, we talk about it being overinflated. It's not real numbers. So let me give you some of those numbers. The big thing we're going to talk about in the next segment, Social Security, should you take it at 62? Should you wait emotionally? There's a lot of reasons to do one or the other. But I want to break down some of the numbers for you.

Producer:
All right, cool. And don't forget, along with listening to Another Money Show every Saturday at noon right here on 960, The Patriot, you can listen back. As I mentioned earlier on in this segment, at the beginning of the program, two previous shows in our podcast catalog. It's very simple. Hit that subscribe button on Apple, Google or Spotify wherever you get your podcast. I know Anthony and J.R. have already done that. They told me. So you can listen any time to those previous episodes via the podcast, anytime, anywhere. Another Money Show, 960 The Patriot. We're back in a moment.

Producer:
You're listening to another Money show. Thank you.

Producer:
Remember, all of JR and Anthony's listeners receive a free financial consultation just for listening to the show. Visit Another Money Show dot com to learn more and schedule an appointment. Thanks for listening to Another Money Show and subscribing wherever you listen to podcasts.

Anthony Carrao:
Welcome back. You're listening to Another Money show with hosts Anthony Carrao, J.R. Rotchford and we were talking about the banks. I want to finish up something real quick because I just saw this article today that Moody's, the accrediting agency, has just downgraded its outlooks on some major banks in Europe from stable to negative this week. Germany, Italy, two of the bigger names you get the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland. Talk about money and how it's fake and how we can't really necessarily trust the banks. Well, this isn't a good sign. I mean, these accrediting agencies, which in 2008 kind of proved how sketchy they are. So for them to actually admit that some of these banks are in trouble is kind of it's a little too late. We've been warning about some of the European banks. We've been warning about our own banks on American soil for years now.

J.R. Rotchford:
Anthony I've been talking about this for years. I did a presentation, you know, Randy or friend Randy. I did a presentation in 2017. You know, I keep all these old presentations so I can kind of look back and see if I'm still on the right track, you know, week after week, I'm wrong about my doomsday predictions. Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day. And guess what, kids? It's about one minute to midnight. So I look back at that presentation. December of 2017, Deutsche Bank was one day away from closing there. There are people raiding their offices, the banks in Italy, the banks in Ireland, the banks around the world were sketchy, as you know what? So this is not a new phenomenon. It it all I'm thinking, as you're saying, that is it's a matter of when, not if. That's what I think. I think we're going to have a global reset with our finances and our answers to you are very, very narrow. That's why we always talk about cash, debt management, hard assets, insurance companies.

Anthony Carrao:
So essentially, if you don't physically have it, you really don't have it. I mean, you've got a bunch of ones and zeros in the bank, but there's a lot of things that could go wrong. So we're very big on having some cash at home, having some hard assets, just something physical that you can touch because that is yours. You know, you have to worry about the fire, burglary, floods, stuff like that. But at least, you know, you have it to be so trusting that these banks are going to have your money when you decide you want. It is kind of a stretch right now at this point. But those was I just wanted to touch on that real quick since we kind of ran out of time in the last segment talking about the stock market. You brought that back again, how people kind of get a little smug that it's not going up. The market value of this of stocks, of the stock market in general is just based on the last transaction price. That means in theory, you're judging market value, saying every single share is going to sell at that latest high price. So we talked about billionaires a while back and how they don't really truly have the money that you think they do. I mean, Elon Musk went from having 25 billion or net value of 25 billion to over 150 billion in 2020 because Tesla shares shot up. He can't sell all of his shares at that price and actually ever cash in on that 150 billion. If he sells all of his assets to have a net worth of liquid net worth, it's not even going to be close to that because there will be selling frenzy if that happens. So some numbers I was able to find today is that the current estimated value of the stock market, based on all the shares available at the prices they're selling now is about 46 trillion, Right? So $46 trillion, that means we have to have $46 trillion to be able to buy that. Right. Are you following the logic there? Does that make sense?

J.R. Rotchford:
Yes.

Anthony Carrao:
So now. How much money do we actually have? We talk to money supply, which is money in cash, money markets, savings deposits at your bank. We talked about how that got jacked up by 40% over the last two years because the quantitative easing, the Fed printing all this money, that M2 money supply is 21 trillion. That means we have a market worth double what we actually have available to buy it. But wait, it gets more exciting because if you look at US household debt, not even the 31 trillion in government debt. But if we look at you, me, all of our listeners, our buddy Jim over there, Sam Davis, if we look at our household debt, our household debt is $16 trillion. That means if we use all of our liquid money as a nation to pay off all of our debt, we have $5 trillion left in a market valued at 46 trillion. That market is not worth 46 trillion because nobody has the money to make it worth that. And that's it. That's all I have for today. All right. Let's break down.

J.R. Rotchford:
This and that. It is interesting. It's overwhelming. I would imagine most people would prefer that. I would imagine most. But I just heard that are like I have no idea what that means. You know, who can wrap their head around a trillion, you know, put put a one down on a piece of paper and then a comma after it and then 12 zeros. You can even make it look more impressive by putting a period after that and to more like the sense that's a trillion. It's 12 zeros. It's not a number we can fathom. So and basically, you've talked when we were new at the show, you talk about how the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. It's all distractions. We're like little ants on a little ant hill. And, you know, I mean, I question why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the highly watched index when it's only 30 companies. I question that all the time. I also question how Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google, how the FAANG stocks have really, really carried the markets. I mean, look at the Nasdaq lately. It's in deep trouble, you know, but these markets, they're all full of hooey anyway. You know, go back to 2000, eight, nine, ten and tell me how the market looked. You know, it shrunk a hair. Remember when people were buying GM stock because it was down to $5 a share and then all said it was just de-listed and then there was a new GM.

J.R. Rotchford:
Is you know, you talk about it when when a company in the Dow underperforms, they pull it out and put a new one in. It's a rigged game. And you know, this stuff lately with people being a little bit smug and and there's a handful. It's in general people do think that we're right. Something is wrong. Is this just waiting for the midterms? Is it waiting for World War Three or whatever? I mean, I don't know. It's just crazy. You know, we're out there telling people, you know, you're being told by financial advisers, buy low, sell high. You can't time the market. You're giving all this advice over and over and it's all for the same game. But the rules keep changing and people aren't keeping up with it. You know, people are saying buy the dips. You know, when things were ugly just two weeks ago, think back. You've got to go really far. Back two weeks ago, it was really, really ugly. And here come all the advisors. Buy the dips. Buy the dips. Well, here are this. Last two weeks has been really beautiful. Here I come saying sell the peaks. I'm not, I'm not trust in this market yet. I would still have all my people hang out for a while. I don't trust the world right now, so I certainly am not thinking that everything's legitimate these last two weeks. So stop buying the dips and start selling the peaks at least.

Anthony Carrao:
Where does the money come from to buy the dips? That's the thing. Unless you're selling the peaks, you have no money to buy the dips. If all of your money is invested and all of your money is down 20%, how do you come up with that? More money to buy the dips.

J.R. Rotchford:
You don't. It's just a buzzword. They want you to keep invested. It's the old buy and hold. If it worked up until the year 2000, March and April of 2000, it worked. Until then, it doesn't work anymore. But we have to take a break before I have a stroke or a heart attack on air. So let's do this. Make sure you reach out to us at team at another Money showcase or give us a call. 6235230444. As Jim says, check out our podcast. We're here for you. Thanks so much for taking time out of your weekend to be with us.

Producer:
You're listening to Another Money Show. To learn more and contact J.R. and Anthony, visit Another Money Show dot com. Another weekend, Another Money Show visit. Another money show dot com.

J.R. Rotchford:
Welcome back to Another Money Show. I'm J.R. and I'm with Anthony and our producer, Jim. And we were talking about banks a little bit. We were talking about the financial markets. We were talking a little bit about the scope of the financial markets versus how much money we have. So we hit a lot of different things. You know, we need to really look at the big picture day to day. What do people do about it? You know, it's great they were sounding alarms, but we have to give you solutions, not just problems. And we love doing that. I mean, you know, here on the radio, it's just generalization because we there's all kinds of different people listening to this, especially Arlene in Peoria. Thanks, Anthony, for mentioning Arlene. I am so tickled that she's tuning in to the radio every Saturday. You know, it's a friend of a friend of ours, and they're just cool people. So anyway, I ran into a couple old neighbors. This was Monday, I guess it was. I was probably going to buy one of those juicy billion dollar Powerball tickets, you know, because a good friend is advisor, knows your odds of winning the Powerball are up two. It's about 300 million. It's about like every citizen in the country number. So it's it's yeah, it's a good financial investment. My father used to say your odds of winning the lottery are identical, whether you play or not. So that was funny. He called that a tax on the dumb. It's like, well, I buy lottery tickets. He's like, well then do the math, son. Do the math.

Anthony Carrao:
Yeah, but then you win. Like.

J.R. Rotchford:
I won a little. Yeah, I won a good one. The day that I had five numbers on the Arizona pick, I won ten grand, went down to university, picked up my check for 7500. They held out federal and state. So I had no choice on that. Bought my father a case of wine, bought your mom step bars for her Yukon. I bought a little DVD player and I put the rest in the bank. The bank that was safe back then. I felt I felt good about it. I actually had that money for an emergency fund, but he did back down a little bit that day. I mean, he was like, Oh, well, that's that's weird. 10,000 at the level that I played at the time, that would have provided me at about 100 years of my little to $1 drawings twice a week. So anyway, so back to the lottery. That is our number one financial plan for people. When you come in our office, we keep number two golf pencils and little slips. We want to play the Powerball. We only want one lottery tickets. Right. So by the time you hear this on Saturday, hopefully somebody won it. So we are closing down the practice except to one client. We want one $1.2 billion client. So back to running into my neighbors, my neighbor Dean.

J.R. Rotchford:
And by the way, Dean, I hope you're listening is so great to see you guys. He was grumbling a little bit. He bought a dozen jumbo eggs and it was $6.49. And I don't buy eggs. I know Sandy buys eggs. I don't buy eggs. I don't know much about it. But apparently that's kind of shocking. And what I said to him, because I'm always pretty much half empty, not full nowadays. I said, Well, at least you got him. He was like, What do you mean? I'm like, Well, at least you got eggs $6 and 48. And, you know, I mean, you got a decent income, you're fine. So the thing when we talk about what's going on around us, when we talk about stocking up, I don't think I'd stock up on eggs. But, you know, look at you brought up diesel fuel earlier. I mean, we're really, really taking a chance over the next weeks and months of there being a snag with their diesel fuel. If that happens, the trucks aren't going to run. They're not going to bring the eggs to the store to begin with. You know, the railroad strike is back on. We've talked about that. That has not been finalized. So towards the end of this year, there's a lot of interesting things on the table.

Anthony Carrao:
Well, diesel fuel, we we talked to a client and friend who's big into that industry. I mean, he's been working in it for decades. And he said that they're talking about having 45 days left in reserve.

J.R. Rotchford:
And the mainstream media is saying less. I mean, if you're watching TV and listening to different things, I'm hearing that we have anywhere as of today, November 2nd, we have from 5 to 21 days left, depending on who you talk to. Yes, of course, the government might strike a deal. We're working with Venezuela, apparently. I love the irony of that one. You know, apparently Saudi Arabia told us to go. You know, I can't say piss off, can I? Jim on the radio, they Saudi Arabia told us to go away. So now we're talking to Venezuela and we're trying to get a little deal with them. You know, we do have oil in this country, I understand just in one place in Alaska, we have like 30 years worth. So maybe until we get the power grid up and running and get the EV situation under control, let's drill for a little while. So just my thought. But basically, you know, when you look at income, when you look at being able to afford eggs, we the question we get a lot should I take Social Security, should I wait? Should I take it at 62? Should I take it at 70? Let's do this. Let's take a break and then let's dig right into Social Security. I'll talk in general. You give us some stats and numbers. You're an engineer. So thank you. Thank you for being with us. As always, we'll take a break, but you can find us at team at another Money show dot com. Check out our website, another Money show or give us a call. 623 523 0444. And we will be right back. As Jim probably would say, because he's a radio dude, don't touch that dial. But he'd say it in a cooler voice.

Producer:
Are you concerned about market volatility, rising taxes from the Biden administration, and how it could affect your retirement? Then listen to Another Money Show with J.R. Rotchford and Anthony Corrao. Learn how you can reduce the taxes you pay before and during retirement. Another money show every Saturday at 4:00 pm on 960. The Patriot. Schedule your free no obligation consultation now by calling 623 523 0444. That's 623 523 0444. This is Another Money Show. Except this one's different. This one will actually keep you awake.

Anthony Carrao:
Welcome back. We've been hinting about talking about Social Security the whole time, and then we keep getting sidetracked. But now it is. And I've got some numbers for you, but I know the numbers kind of get lost in translation, but is really good at conceptual. So he's got some stories talking about clients of the past being very, very happy that they turned on Social Security at 62.

J.R. Rotchford:
So speaking of conceptual, we are two totally different animals. I am very big picture conceptual stories. You are very detail oriented. I don't want to say the word anal. You are very, very mean. You're an engineer by trade. You left being an engineer where Northrop Grumman. I mean, you had a high you had a pretty high tone job over there. So how you came in the family business, I have no idea. But anyway, so yeah, the big picture we my father and I spent years a big part of our practice was doing Social Security planning. I mean, we had we used to buy these little worksheets and little notebooks, and we took it seriously. We didn't just ask about your income and your assets, which obviously a lot of people are forced into taking Social Security at 62 because they haven't had enough opportunity to save. Not everybody's wealthy. You know, we learned over the years there's people that need help that don't have millions of dollars. So that's why we have no quotas and no no obligation. At Rotchford Associates, conveniently located off of Bell Road in Suncity. So with my father and I, we would ask about family history. We if people were open to it, we fine tuned it. What meds are you on? It was like we're looking at life insurance for these people.

J.R. Rotchford:
I mean, if everybody in your family died in their sixties and you're 62 right now, oh, they may maybe take a closer peek at it. If everybody in your family died in their late nineties. Well, you know, maybe the more traditional financial planning is in order. You know, if you're a wise crystal ball having financial planner, you would say 70, you know, get to your full retirement age, obviously. Of course, you know, and whatever it is, 66 and three fourths. But then if you wait till you're 70, you get an extra 8% a year For those four years, three years, I'm not good at numbers or math, but you know what I'm saying. So how dumb would you be to tell somebody to take it early? Well, there's a lot of things to this one. If you get hit by a bus, maybe you should have taken it earlier, too. You might need the money. Obviously, we're aware of the fact that we have to look at your income. And if you're going to every $2 you get, you give a dollar back. Is that really smart? But the day you retire, if you're 62 or if you're 68 or whatever, we need to look at it. The thing that got added, the reason you and I don't do nearly as much Social Security planning is it's come to light that it's insolvent.

J.R. Rotchford:
People have taken money out of it. It's a program that definitely needs to be revamped. If you watch the local commercials, you're hearing that Blake Masters is going to take away your Social Security. Well, I don't know if Blake is or not. I just know that the system is not sustainable as is. So sooner or later it's going to give they're probably going to raise the age where you can take it, you know, instead of 62 through 70, they might say, well, across the board, 75, we're all in this together. And if if you're 62 and you're thinking about taking it and they do that, or maybe you should have taken it, we don't know. So basically, and if you go back, most people save stuff, especially in Sun City, go back and look for your old green and white Social Security statements and read the left column on the front page and then read the right column, top half on the right side of that page, and you'll be shocked. It says to you it were not your only source of income. You better save on your own. You know, we're meant to be supplemental. People don't read that.

J.R. Rotchford:
They go right to the second page. You know, all I get if I'm disabled or my wife get if I kick over. But but read those old statements. What I used to find interesting when they would say it's going to be insolvent and say 2034, then you look at the next year and it should move up by year. Some of the years jumped two or three years ahead. So instead of being insolvent or whatever, 2035 also it was like 2032. It was like, whoa, wait, whoa. Maybe you're more broke than you're letting on. So it's a big Ponzi scheme. I can tell you that. You know, the people that we've had over the last five, eight, ten years that have taken their Social Security at 62, they don't seem to regret it. They're not looking back, you know, saying, oh, my gosh, I would have waited. Obviously, the math check. You know, if I wait, I get more. And Anthony, where you come in is you help them with the numbers for their situation. You help them with the break in. A break in the break even. We're going to break into Social Security with masks on. So talk to me a little bit about the detail. I mean, should I take it at 62 or should I wait til I'm 30?

Anthony Carrao:
I mean, you made really, really good points. And now not only is the math, you have to consider family history, whether or not you can take Social Security now, you have to factor in what the future of Social Security looks like. It's one thing for J.R. and Anthony to give you ideas on what the future holds, but we read their annual reports. They're saying if they're going to stay solvent and not go broke by 2034, again, this is their own reports. It says they have three solutions and it can be one of the three or a combination. But they talk about raising taxes from 3 to 15%. They talk about cutting future benefits for those who haven't already been grandfathered in by 25%. But they also have on here that potentially even those that are taking it now, they could cut it by 21% across the board. So we do feel like they'd have a harder time cutting Social Security for those already taking it. So many people are dependent on it right now. So we do think it's going to be a much harder hit for those who haven't taken it. Now, there are limits to what you can make while you're on Social Security. So that has to be factored in. But if you're a small business owner and that's what we found a lot with our small business clients is if they can keep their income over that threshold, they can double dip and take at 62.

Anthony Carrao:
But the biggest issue and why I say take it at 62 if you can, if. Your other if you're still working, your other incomes aren't an issue. Is that break even that J.R. said, Yeah, If you wait from 62 to 70, your Social Security benefit practically doubles, right? And if you could have $1,000 a month, wouldn't you want to rather have 2000 a month? Well, of course, but you have to wait those eight years. That means you have to catch up that amount first to make that 2000 payment a month worth it. So I ran the numbers. If you take your Social Security at 67 versus at 62. Do you make more money? Absolutely. However, you're missing out on those five years of payments that you have to catch up on. That break even is 14 years. So that means if you take at 67 your break even 14 years, that's at age 81. Last week and the week before, I think we talked about the CDC coming back and saying that we've dropped how long we're going to live, how long they're expecting us to live are expected life cycles, Right.

Anthony Carrao:
Women in general will live longer, but even them before the drop last year peaked around 81, 82. So there is no real break even if you're going to pass away before then. And that's kind of sad to think about, but that's the truth. If you wait till age 70, it's a 24 year break even. That means that's putting you at age 94. I mean, has got 25 years of clients under his belt. We just had a client live to 100. Passed away recently, but she made it to 100 this year. We've had a few that have made it past 94. But at that age, you're spending all of your money on medical bills. Shouldn't you be taking this money now and enjoying it? So it's one thing in theory for us to say have money sooner because you can enjoy it while you're younger. But even if you look at the math, the math doesn't make sense unless you have to push it off to a later date because you're still working and they'll take away. But if you can make it work, I mean, turn it on at 62 seems like a no brainer to me.

J.R. Rotchford:
Well, and obviously, you know, again, we don't know who's listening, so we can't give specific advice on this. We have to sit with you and figure out your situation. You know, we ask people, were you married before or were you married more than ten years? You know, we look for whatever your highest benefit is obviously to so but in general, it's just it seems to be shifting where once again, the old rules of financial planning aren't keeping up. You know, it might be good in your situation to look at it. 62 if you're if you're a couple and one of you is higher income earner than the other one, maybe the other one, draw others first. You know, wait a little longer on yours. You know, there's all these different strategies, but it's just not so cut and dry like it used to be years and years ago. I mean.

Anthony Carrao:
There's always strategies and who to take it first and if you can, but I'm just in general. I mean, the math is very straightforward or it makes more sense financially if you can.

J.R. Rotchford:
I'm just trying to get it through compliance. I just it sounds like you're giving advice to grab it at 62 to everybody. And I'm saying, well, we don't necessarily believe that We we definitely we definitely you know, you're an engineer. You've done the math. I conceptually think most people need their Social Security. And you're right. You hit on the medical thing. Would you rather get Social Security 62 and take a cruise and give that money to the the tips and to the all you can eat buffets? That sounds kind of good. I'm hungry. Or would you rather give it to the doctors when you're 94? So a lot of this is psychological and not financial and that's why you do need to get help from a professional or us. I mean, if you can't find a professional, where do so.

Anthony Carrao:
So what do we do? If so, say I am looking to retire, I have retired and the worst happens and they cut my Social Security. Now how do I. How do I replace that income?

J.R. Rotchford:
Look, that is the best segway ever on the history of Another Money Show. 960 The Patriot every Saturday at noon. So that's that's awesome when you're taking your money. We just told you don't go in the banks. Don't put that money in the bank where you got to put the money in banks, but then take it out right away. So you should have some cash. Put some cash at home. You'll get a window of opportunity to turn it in when the digital currency arrives. So have some cash. You can give it to one of the 87,000 IRS agents. When they get to your house, just give them a tip. They're probably going to come with a tip jar. Right. And maybe an air 15. So have some cash. You should also probably pay down your debt, Use that income. Make sure you are debt free. Thank you. Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, all you people, I agree with you. Debt free is a luxurious peace of mind. And then what do you do with a pension when you're worried about the stock market? When you're worried about the bonds? We're in Sun City. It was always as you get older, as your risk tolerance starts to wane, you go from equities to bonds.

J.R. Rotchford:
That advice might be sketchy right now. So insurance companies, we talk about it over and over, the insurance companies, these big old stodgy companies out 150, 170, 200 years. They weathered the Great Depression, they weathered 2008. They've had about 15 years of lower interest rates than we'd all like. But we traded the excitement and the growth opportunity for a little more stability, a little more safety, which is important optimally. Have both have your money laddered out. We get all those things, you know, we and next week, why don't we take an entire section or two and break down? Let's do annuities 101 next week or annuity is 202. Let's do both because I really want to air this out. You know, we're talking over and over. You have options to the banks. You have you know, insurance companies have very ultra short term programs. They have one year, two year, three year, just like a CD alternative. They have something that's very short. They have lifetime pensions. You can never outlive your money. We need to dig into all of that.

Anthony Carrao:
All you needed to say. I tried to softball that up to about Social Security and then you can self-fund pensions and you took all of this time just to get to that point.

J.R. Rotchford:
It's a radio show. We have to fill up our hour. By the way, Jim, are you still working on getting us a six hour show? Because this one hour ain't cutting it. I have so much to say. I want to.

Producer:
I want to working on it. You got to give me some time.

Anthony Carrao:
I again, we're almost out of time. Jim just gave us that two minute mark.

J.R. Rotchford:
Oh, boy.

Anthony Carrao:
One minute now.

J.R. Rotchford:
Well, and I don't know if it was today fun. Was today serious? I don't you know, today was a weird day going into it. So today it was kind of weird. I found out a friend of mine passed away and it kind of shook me a little bit. But let's do this. Let's start wrapping it up. We will make sure that we don't let you down. There's there's a tease for you, Jim. Next week, we are going to dig into insurance companies, the different parts of them. We're going to go into annuities one on one and 202, because either you've heard they're wonderful or you've heard you'd rather kill a family member than buy them. We'll dig into all that next week.

Anthony Carrao:
Yeah, that was a real commercial, by the way, too, where somebody said that they would rather murder a relative than than sell annuities. What a joke. Anyways, that's it for today's show. If you like what you heard, if you have questions about any of the topics we talked about today, which was pretty much just Social Security, But if you have any questions about that, you want to talk to somebody about your personal situation. There's no minimums, there's no cost for appointments. There's nothing to lose by getting a second. Second opinion. Reach out to us that team at another Money show dot com. Find us on the web at another Money show dot com or give us a call at 623 523 0444. Thanks.

Producer:
Thanks for listening to Another Money Show. You deserve to work with a private wealth management firm that will strategically work to protect your hard earned assets to schedule your free no obligation consultation. Visit Another Money Show dot com AnotherMoneyShow.com.

Producer:
Investment Advisory Services offered through Brookstone Capital Management, LLC BCM A registered investment advisor, BCM and Rotchford Financial are independent of each other. Insurance products and services are not offered through BCM, but are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed agents. Investment involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as an indicator to determine future results.

Producer:
Anthony Carrao and Rotchford and Associates Financial Services are not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or by any other government agency.

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